Comments on: Bernstein Seasonality and the PSEi http://marktmarket.wordpress.com Value is relative. Tue, 08 Dec 2009 03:41:25 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Doc http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/trading-research/bernstein-seasonality-and-the-psei/#comment-185 Doc Tue, 29 Jul 2008 00:52:22 +0000 http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/?page_id=43#comment-185 I mentioned on Finance Manila that seasonality isn't really for entry and exit, but more as an additional parameter to adjust your trading. What you said about less risky--is correct in the respect that if you waited till around August to accumulate, the odds favor low prices. However to consider August "low" will have to be confirmed by the later months. This means that if the expected upswings don't materialize in the later months, something else is afoot--and you will want to adjust your trading for that as well (case in point: 2007 and no December rally). I mentioned on Finance Manila that seasonality isn’t really for entry and exit, but more as an additional parameter to adjust your trading.

What you said about less risky–is correct in the respect that if you waited till around August to accumulate, the odds favor low prices. However to consider August “low” will have to be confirmed by the later months.

This means that if the expected upswings don’t materialize in the later months, something else is afoot–and you will want to adjust your trading for that as well (case in point: 2007 and no December rally).

]]> By: jing http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/trading-research/bernstein-seasonality-and-the-psei/#comment-184 jing Mon, 28 Jul 2008 17:28:49 +0000 http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/?page_id=43#comment-184 Assuming your seasonality hypothesis above will be theory, this is how I will trade according to these study: Your study shows the low months are March and August and good months are Feb and July. So "Sell in May and walk away" is not applicable to Philippine setting. It should be "Buy on March and sell on July" and "Buy on August and sell on February". Also its less riskier to bottom fish on August. If its a falling knife, the knife is not that sharp to cut you so much. Assuming your seasonality hypothesis above will be theory, this is how I will trade according to these study:

Your study shows the low months are March and August and good months are Feb and July. So “Sell in May and walk away” is not applicable to Philippine setting. It should be “Buy on March and sell on July” and “Buy on August and sell on February”. Also its less riskier to bottom fish on August. If its a falling knife, the knife is not that sharp to cut you so much.

]]> By: Doc http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/trading-research/bernstein-seasonality-and-the-psei/#comment-175 Doc Sun, 27 Jul 2008 02:30:39 +0000 http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/?page_id=43#comment-175 Thanks rael. Actually something I always aim to do is measure relationships that most people take for granted and see exactly how they stack up in actual fact. Understanding relationships between certain inputs to results in the market is essentially the best thing people can do to bring their market theories and ideas and convert them to actual market returns. Thanks rael. Actually something I always aim to do is measure relationships that most people take for granted and see exactly how they stack up in actual fact.

Understanding relationships between certain inputs to results in the market is essentially the best thing people can do to bring their market theories and ideas and convert them to actual market returns.

]]> By: rael http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/trading-research/bernstein-seasonality-and-the-psei/#comment-174 rael Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:39:13 +0000 http://marktmarket.wordpress.com/?page_id=43#comment-174 Simple and beautiful. Good job, MTM! Might be a good guide for UITF/MF investors. Simple and beautiful. Good job, MTM! Might be a good guide for UITF/MF investors.

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